South Sudan country-level consultancy for Risk Mapping and Analysis

The International Rescue Committee (IRC) responds to the world's worst humanitarian crises, helping to restore health, safety, education, economic wellbeing, and power to people devastated by conflict and disaster. Founded in 1933 at the call of Albert Einstein, the IRC is one of the world's largest international humanitarian non-governmental organizations (INGO), at work in more than 40 countries and 29 U.S. cities helping people to survive, reclaim control of their future and strengthen their communities. A force for humanity, IRC employees deliver lasting impact by restoring safety, dignity and hope to millions. If you're a solutions-driven, passionate change-maker, come join us in positively impacting the lives of millions of people world-wide for a better future.

PLAYMATTERS 3.0

Terms of Reference

For South Sudan country Risk Mapping, Analysis and Development of the Crisis Modifier Risk Matrix

Assignment : South Sudan country-level consultancy for Risk Mapping and Analysis

Country : South Sudan

Target areas :

PlayMatters target locations in South Sudan. Specifically:

• Eastern Equatorial State (EES)- Magwi,

• Central Equatorial State (CES)-Yei, Kajo Keji, Torit

• Unity State-Rubkona,

• Jonglei State-Bor South,

• Upper Nile State -Renk and Malakal

• Northern Bahr Ghazal State- Aweil East County and Aweil Municipality

• Lakes State- Yirol West and Rumbek East

Duration : 25 days

Proposed period :

START DATE: 1st October 2026

END DATE: 31st December 2026

Reporting : Project Team Lead with technical backstopping from EiE Technical Advisor.

1. Background and Purpose

PlayMatters 3.0 (2026–2030) is a four-year education initiative implemented by the International Rescue Committee (IRC), Plan International and War Child Alliance in Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda. The programme aims to improve the well-being and holistic learning outcomes of pre-primary and primary school-aged children, including children affected by conflict and crisis, by strengthening education systems to deliver quality education through Learning through Play (LtP).

PlayMatters has three outcomes. Outcome 3 focuses on protecting children’s holistic development during acute crises. Its Crisis Modifier (CM) provides a flexible mechanism for preparedness, anticipatory action, rapid multisectoral response and transition, while keeping a clear link with the programme’s longer-term education systems work.

The CM is not intended to replace existing government or humanitarian response mechanisms. It is designed to work with them and to allow PlayMatters country teams to act quickly when a significant shock or deterioration affects children, education services or the wider conditions needed for learning and well-being.

The first phase of the CM risk work is a country-level consultative risk mapping and analysis. This phase will establish a clear, evidence-informed understanding of the priority shocks and stresses affecting PlayMatters operational areas, their geographic and population impacts, existing capacities and key gaps. It will build on existing government, humanitarian/cluster, inter-agency, IRC-led and other relevant risk and early-warning analysis rather than creating parallel assessments. The findings will provide the country-specific evidence base for the subsequent development of triggers, indicators and response options in a later phase.

2. Purpose of the Consultancy

The purpose of this consultancy is to establish a clear, evidence-informed understanding of the priority shocks and stresses that may affect children, education services and holistic well-being in PlayMatters target areas in South Sudan. The analysis will draw on existing risk assessments, vulnerability and hazard analysis, conflict and climate information, displacement and disease data, preparedness documentation, and relevant early-warning and coordination information, complemented by targeted consultations where additional information is required.

The consultancy will provide the South Sudan PlayMatters country team with a validated understanding of the main risks, where and who is most likely to be affected, the potential implications for education and children’s well-being, existing capacities and preparedness arrangements, and key gaps requiring attention.

The findings will provide the evidence base for subsequent Crisis Modifier preparedness work and the development of the country Trigger & Response Matrix.

3.Specific Objectives

• Identify and analyze the main shocks and stresses (including conflict, displacement, climate-related hazards, disease outbreaks and other relevant risks) affecting children’s access to education and holistic development in PlayMatters target areas of South Sudan.

• Conduct a consultative risk mapping and prioritization process to assess the likelihood, severity and potential geographic and population impacts of priority shocks and stresses, including consideration of seasonality and existing early-warning information.

• Consult with relevant IRC crisis response programmes, government, humanitarian and education actors, community representatives, consortium partners and other relevant system actors to understand existing capacities, preparedness and response arrangements, identify gaps, and strengthen complementarity with existing mechanisms.

• Work with the Project Management Committee (PMC) and Regional EiE Adviser to translate the risk analysis into a country-level priority risk map/Matrix providing the basis for which triggers, early-warning indicators, thresholds and response options will be developed in the subsequent phase. 4.Scope of the Assignment

4.1. Inception and planning

• Conduct a desk review of existing risk, vulnerability, hazard, conflict, climate, displacement, disease and education assessments, contingency plans, and

Education

• Cluster/sector preparedness documentation for South Sudan.

• Build on relevant existing government, humanitarian/cluster, inter-agency, IRC-led and other risk analysis, risk mapping and early-warning products, identifying where existing evidence can be adopted and where information gaps require additional analysis.

• Agree on the methodology, actual geographical locations to be covered (taking into consideration security and access), consultation plan, stakeholder list, analytical framework and work schedule with the Project management Committee (PMC) Lead and Regional EiE Adviser.

• Submit an inception report setting out the proposed approach, workplan, stakeholder/data-source mapping, consultation plan, analytical framework and expected outputs.

• 4.2. Risk mapping and analysis

• Conduct key informant interviews and focused consultations with PMC members, relevant IRC staff, government education actors, humanitarian and education coordination actors, community leaders, national partners, consortium actors and other relevant system actors identified in the workplan’s reach group.

• Map historical and anticipated shocks and stresses specific to PlayMatters operational areas, considering geographic variation, population exposure/vulnerability, seasonality and relevant existing risk monitoring and early-warning information already in use nationally or sub-nationally.

• Assess and prioritize risks using transparent criteria agreed with the PMC and Regional EiE Adviser, considering potential impacts on children, education services and holistic well-being.

• 4.3. Risk mapping report

• Draft a country-specific Risk Analysis and Mapping Report covering priority shocks and stresses, risk prioritization, geographic and population impacts, relevant data sources, existing capacities and key gaps.

• Review the draft with the Project Management Team(PMC) and Regional EiE Adviser and incorporate feedback.

• Facilitate validation of the priority risks with the PMC and, where feasible, relevant coordination structures and stakeholders.

• Produce a final consultancy report summarizing the process, findings, validated priority risks and recommendations for periodic review and updating of the risk analysis.

• Note: The report should clearly identify the priority risks, the evidence and data sources supporting their prioritization, relevant existing risk monitoring and early-warning information, geographic and population impacts, existing capacities and key gaps, and any areas requiring further analysis providing the evidence base for the subsequent assignment which will focus on the development of triggers, early-warning indicators, thresholds and response options.

• 5. Methodology

• The consultant should use a mixed-method, participatory approach.

• Desk review of existing risk, vulnerability, hazard, conflict, climate, displacement, education and preparedness documentation.

• Review and synthesis of existing government, humanitarian/cluster, inter-agency, IRC-led and other relevant risk analysis, risk mapping and early-warning products.

• Key informant interviews and focus group discussions with relevant IRC staff, government, humanitarian, education, community and consortium actors.

• Risk mapping and prioritization using transparent criteria agreed with the PMC and Regional EiE Adviser.

• Analysis of geographic and population exposure, vulnerability, seasonality, existing capacities and gaps.

• Validation with the PMC and, where feasible, relevant coordination structures.

• Triangulation of evidence across documentary sources and stakeholder perspectives, with clear acknowledgement of information gaps and uncertainty.

• It is important to take note that in this assignment, the consultant is not expected to develop activation triggers, trigger thresholds, early-warning indicators or response options. The existing risk monitoring and early-warning information should only be reviewed and documented as part of the risk analysis, leaving conversion into trigger thresholds or activation criteria to the subsequent assignment.

• 6. Expected Deliverables

• No. 1

• Key Output: Inception Report

• Content : Methodology; geographic and stakeholder scope; data/source mapping; consultation plan; analytical framework; workplan; identified information gaps and proposed approach to addressing them.

• Timing : 6

• No. 2

• Key Output : Country Risk Mapping and Analysis

• Content : Priority shocks and stresses; risk prioritization; geographic and population impacts; seasonality; existing capacities on preparedness and existing response arrangements; key gaps; supporting evidence and data sources.

• Timing : 6

• No. 3

• Key Output : Draft Country Risk map/ matrix and Risk Analysis and Mapping Report

• Content : Priority shocks and stresses; risk prioritization; country-level priority risk map/matrix, geographic and population impacts; relevant data sources; existing risk monitoring and early-warning arrangements; capacities and gaps. The draft report should be shared for review with the PMC, Regional EiE Adviser.

• Timing : 6

• Key Output : Validation Meeting/Workshop with PMCs

• Content : Validation session, documented feedback and final country, risk Matrix.

• Timing : 2

• No. 4

• Key Output : Final Country Risk Analysis, Mapping Report

• Content : Final validated country Risk Matrix and Risk Analysis and Mapping Report incorporating review and validation feedback; recommendations for periodic review and updating (of risks and their prioritization thereof); concise identification of key evidence, information gaps and considerations to inform the subsequent work on triggers and response options.

• Timing : 5

• Total Days 25

• 7. Management, Coordination and Quality Assurance

• The consultant will report to the PlayMatters Country PMC Lead in the assigned country.

• The Regional Education in Emergencies Adviser will provide technical oversight and quality assurance.

• The consultant will work closely with the country Outcome 3/Crisis Modifier focal point and relevant consortium technical colleagues.

• Th