[Consultancy] To conduct a learning evaluation of the Challenge Grant Fund of the NbS Guinean Forest Project.

TERMS OF REFERENCE

1. Context and justification

1.1. The NbS Guinean Forests Project

The project “Nature-based climate adaptation in the Guinean forests of West Africa” (NbS Guinean Forests) is a three-year collaborative initiative (March 27, 2023 – March 31, 2026), implemented in consortium by the World University Service of Canada (WUSC) and the Centre for International Studies and Cooperation (CECI), with funding from Global Affairs Canada (GAC), for a total budget of CAD 26,185,529.

1.2. The Challenge Grant

To operationalize the intermediate result 1300, the project established a Challenge Grant with a total budget of CAD 1,300,000 (excluding management costs), allocated between micro-enterprises (CAD 300,000, or CAD 100,000 per country) and small and medium-sized enterprises (CAD 1,000,000, allocated as follows: CAD 350,000 for Ghana, CAD 350,000 for Côte d'Ivoire, and CAD 300,000 for Guinea). An additional budget of CAD 300,000 covers the coordination costs of the Fund manager (Sephis).

The Challenge Grant offers three types of subsidies — equipment (at least 50% of investments), cash and technical assistance — for companies divided into three categories (micro, small, medium), with priority given to companies led or owned by women, or representing the interests of a critical group of women, particularly in the cocoa (Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire) and rice (Guinea) sectors.

The Challenge Grant’s activities are scheduled to conclude no later than December 2026 in each country, with summative evaluation workshops planned in all three countries. It is within this context of the end of the intervention cycle that a learning evaluation of the Challenge Grant is planned.

1.3. Challenge Grant Objectives

Objectives of the NbS Guinean Forest Project Challenge Grant

• To invest in innovative businesses that can advance climate adaptation, biodiversity conservation, while fostering women’s economic empowerment in the project landscapes

• To attract private sector investments in nature-based solutions for a sustainable impact in climate adaptation

• To promote green entrepreneurship as a viable option for employment among youth, particularly women entrepreneurs.

• To support businesses with the means to incubate and accelerate viable business ideas that can contribute to climate adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and women’s economic empowerment by cushioning their financial risk.

1.4. Justification for the evaluation

To overcome the financial and operational barriers that hinder the adoption of Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) by the local private sector, the Guinean Forests NbS project has launched an initiative called the “Challenge Grant,” with a budget of 1.3 million CAD, designed to serve as a catalyst for incubation, inclusive investment, and risk mitigation. This initiative primarily targets micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and groups led by women or with a strong female presence in agricultural and rural value chains. This mechanism combines the provision of equipment (accounting for at least 50% of the investment), targeted working capital in cash, and personalized technical support (business plan development, accounting management, market access, etc.).

the provision of equipment (accounting for at least 50% of investments), targeted working capital in cash, and personalized technical support (business plan development, accounting management, market access, etc.)

The Challenge Grant aims to establish these local initiatives on a sustainable basis, strengthen their bankability with conventional financial institutions, and demonstrate the commercial viability of adaptation practices in order to ultimately catalyze private capital and sustainable green financing at the landscape and national levels.

• Extract compelling lessons and replicable models to guide the design of future mechanisms for inclusive finance and risk mitigation for Nature-based Solutions;

• Foster reflective accountability toward Global Affairs Canada (GAC) and institutional partners, based on an understanding of the actual dynamics on the ground and the added value of the approach.

2. Purpose and objectives of the evaluation

2.1. General objective

To assess the performance from a learning perspective of the Challenge Grant of the NbS Guinean Forests project, with regard its contribution to beneficiary companies (micro, small and medium), to the economic empowerment of women, and to the contribution to climate adaptation and biodiversity conservation, in order to draw lessons that can be used for the project and its partners.

2.2. Specific Objectives

In line with the OECD-DAC criteria, the evaluation will analyze the initiative's contribution to the three elements mentioned above, in order to:

• Assess the relevance of the design of the Challenge Grant (typology of subsidies, eligibility criteria, targeting of micro/small/medium enterprises) with regard to the needs of the beneficiaries and the context of the three countries;

• Measure the level of achievement of the targets set in the PMF, in the guidelines and the MERL framework (number of beneficiaries trained, subsidies disbursed by type and by country, enterprises supported, etc.);

• Analyze the efficiency of the delegated management model (Fund Manager / Advisory Committee / Country Coordinators) in terms of time, management costs and quality of selection and disbursement processes;

• Evaluate the effects of the Challenge Grant on women's economic empowerment,

• Evaluate the contribution of supported small and medium-sized enterprises to climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation;

• Assess the likelihood of the sustainability of the gains (business viability, access to traditional financial services, institutional anchoring) beyond the duration of the project;

• Develop profitability models (business models) derived from the experiences observed in different beneficiary companies.

• Gather lessons learned - document good practices, constraints and risks encountered (governance, safeguards, financial management) and formulate concrete and prioritized recommendations for the project and for possible future similar interventions.

Key Activities of the Assignment:

• Conduct an overview of the NbS Challenge Grant to evaluate the extent of contribution in helping beneficiary businesses improve their businesses, apply climate smart practices and incorporate gender equity considerations (medium enterprises).

• Analyse key learning emerging from the practices of positive deviant beneficiaries and the factors that contribute to their success and prepare two business cases that establish the case for investing in businesses in rural towns and communities.

• Prepare at least two success stories that highlight the positive impact of the Challenge Grant to recipient businesses

3. Scope of the evaluation

3.1. Geographic Coverage

The evaluation will cover the two intervention landscapes of the NbS project in Ghana: The Lake Bosomtwe and Wassa Amenfi Landscapes. The sampling of data collection sites (field visits) will be proposed by the consultancy firm and validated with the Evaluation Steering Committee (see section 9).

3.2. Evaluation period

The evaluation covers the period from the effective launch of the Challenge Grant (Output 1312) until the date of data collection in the field, with particular attention to the cumulative results as the closing of activities approaches (December 15, 2026).

3.3. Covered population and Items

• The three categories of beneficiary companies: micro-enterprises, small enterprises and medium-sized enterprises;

• The three types of subsidies: equipment, cash and technical assistance (training, coaching, networking);

• Governance and management mechanisms: Fund Manager, Country Advisory Committees, Project Coordinators, MERL team;

• Cross-cutting measures: gender integration (GESI), safeguards and grievance mechanisms, communication and visibility.

3.4. Elements Outside the Frame (Off-screen)

The evaluation will not focus on the overall performance of the Guinean Forests NbS project as a whole but will focus on aspects of the Challenge Grant only.

4. Evaluation criteria and questions

The evaluation will be based on the OECD DAC evaluation criteria (relevance, effectiveness, efficiency, impact, sustainability), supplemented by two key cross-cutting criteria for the project: gender/social inclusion and environmental contribution (climate adaptation and biodiversity). The questions below provide a starting point; they will be refined and prioritized with the service provider during the inception phase (scoping report).

5. Methodological Approach

The methodological approach is grouped under two sections - Section 1 and Section 2.

Section 1 will focus on the Evaluation aspects of the initiative guided by the OECD GAC criteria. Section 2 will focus on the Learning aspects guided by the use of the Positive Deviance approach framework as indicated below.

Section 1: Evaluation Methodology

A mixed (quantitative and qualitative) participatory and gender-sensitive approach is expected, structured around three stages: (i) documentary and secondary data analysis (including the Fund Manager's monitoring databases); (ii) primary data collection from stakeholders; (iii) triangulation and contributory analysis of results.

5.2. Data Sources and Tools

• Document review: Challenge Grant Guidelines, SERA/MERL framework, Fund Manager quarterly reports, Advisory Committee minutes, grant files, financial reports;

• Semi-structured one-on-one interviews with key stakeholders

• WUSC - GH

• SEPHIS Team

• Members of the Challenge Grant committee

• Technical partners and implementation

• Government agencies for entrepreneurship (Ghana Enterprise Agency)

• Community and traditional leaders

• Other community actors and local authorities

• Semi-structured individual interviews with some representatives of the beneficiary companies

• Micro-enterprise

• Small businesses

• Medium-sized company

• Focus groups with beneficiaries (women in particular) in a subset of communities/landscapes;

• Measurement of indicators with a representative sample of beneficiary companies (micro, small, medium), stratified by country, by type of subsidy and by gender of the company manager.

Indicators 1

• Value of benefits generated by the business operations of Challenge Grant recipient enterprises that is attributed to the grant (disaggregated by investment type, investor type, landscape, country) , from the context of:

• Financial Gains – what financial returns has the business achieved as a result of receiving the Grant?

• Customer acquisition – what changes have taken place in business ability to attract new or retain customers as a result of the Grant.

• Internal process - what changes have taken place in the internal business processes ( bookkeeping, governance, downstream / upstream supply chain transactions, staffing improvements etc) as a result of the Grant.

Indicators: 2

% of women employed or served by project-supported businesses (disaggregated by business type, employed/served, community, country).

The indicator will track:

• the direct contributions of the grant in helping businesses in improving their staffing structure (by gender equitable hiring practices , investing in staff development , etc)

• the direct or indirect contributions of the grant in enabling the beneficiary businesses in better serving their members or other critical supply chain actors as part of their sourcing or supply operations.

Section 2: Learning Methodology

The methodology for the learning aspects of this study will build on the Positive Deviance framework to identify positive deviants within the Challenge Grant beneficiary group, with the aim of understanding some of the key differentiating factors that contribute to their success. The Consultant will seek to understand the range o